Are we finally turning Iraq over to the Shiites and Getting Out?

Last week was Bush's bumbling and fumbling attempt at diplomacy in the Middle East. I feared that His Ineptness would take a horrible situation in Iraq and make it even worse by tilting towards the Sunnis. If we want to leave Iraq anytime soon with any kind of potential order in our wake we must face the demographic and geographic reality that the Shiites are the dominant faction in Iraq.

Hakim's trip to the Oval Office could be a sign that the adults have finally intervened in Bush's Folly.

Bush had a late night meeting with Hakim, frontman for SCIRI. SCIRI is Shiite and has major funding and logistical support from the regime in Iran. Think of Hakim as the Shiite "good cop" to Sadr's "bad cop".

What SCIRI wants is for Shiites to dominate Iraq in its entirety. For this they require a unified Iraq. This dovetails well with Iranian and Turkish desires to prevent an independent Kurdistan including sections of their own territory. It absolutely horrifies the calcified Sunni regimes of the gulf who contemplate the worst from an Iran-Iraq partnership. From a Machiavellian point of view, the fears of the Saudis et.al. make them even more beholden to us for protection than ever before. We return to a kind of status-quo-ante where instead of dual containment of Iran and Iraq, we have single containment of an Iran-Iraq conglomerate. That outcome is the most rosy future following Bush's Collosal Mistake of invading Iraq.

It will probably be even worse unless we as a nation recognize that we have compounded that Collosal Mistake by not turning Iraq over to the Shiites earlier. We should have seen the writing on the wall that:

1. If Iraq is to have government by something other than force, its only ready alternative is the popular adherence to the rule of religious law.

2. Until Iraqi Shiites try Islamic government, they will want to try it, which will always render attempts to foist a Liberal Democracy on them impossible.

3. Perhaps after a generation or two of suffering under Islamic government, they will finally get tired of it and try Liberalism. Iranians show inklings of such an evolution a mere 27 years after Khomeni swept to power. As with Vietnam, time, and the absence of a foreign army, can cure some wounds.

4. The Shiites will dominate eventually anyway. It is cheaper and less bloody to fast-forward to the end game. The sooner we execute this strategy the less of a mess we will have in the Middle East, and finally

5. Yes it can get much, much worse. By equivocating, we send signals to both sides that they will have to duke it out when we leave. The Shiites will crush the Sunnis in Iraq which will draw in the Saudis and others. Iran will respond and we could have a huger mess on our hands. If we declare a winner in advance we can do ourselves and them a favor.